Rains have been delayed in the eastern sector of the Horn of Africa
KEY MESSAGES
While food insecurity has declined from a peak in September 2011, an estimated 11.1 people across the region remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) down from 14.5 million in 2011. Significant improvements were found many parts of Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Ethiopia due to access to humanitarian assistance, the succession of near normal production seasons, reduced conflict, and improved macroeconomic conditions.
Yet, Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) are likely to persist through March in northeastern Amhara, southeastern Tigray, and eastern Oromia in Ethiopia, some northeastern and southern pastoral areas of Ethiopia, Hiraan Agropastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, Bari Region in Somalia, South Kordofan in Sudan, and Pibor County in South Sudan. The poorer outcomes in these areas are attributed to below normal rainfall, the impacts of conflict, and limited access to humanitarian assistance among other factors.
The October to December rains became established by mid-November across most parts of the region. They were considerably late in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Tanzania. Overall, normal to below normal October to December rains are anticipated. However, anomalous warming of the Red Sea is likely to result in improved rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northern Somalia through December.
The general downward trend in food prices in South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania is expected to decrease food insecurity from December through March 2014. However, prices will not decline as much as usual due to below average maize output during the March to June production season in Uganda and high demand for exports. The anticipated below average November to January sorghum harvest in Sudan will similarly result in atypical early depletion of food stocks and reduced exports to Eritrea and South Sudan, increasing the number of food insecure people from January through March 2014.
Following the formalization of the September agreement that is intended to improve relations between Sudan and South Sudan, exports of staple foods from Sudan to South Sudan, access to labor opportunities in Sudan by South Sudanese households, access to grazing rangelands in South Sudan by Sudan’s Messeriya pastoralists, and shared oil revenues should all increase, gradually increasing food security in some areas.