FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for January to June 2014 are based on the following regional assumptions:
SEASONAL PERFORMANCE
• The March to May 2014 Gu/long rains in the eastern Horn of Africa in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are expected to be near normal to below normal in terms of total rainfall.
• The long rains in western Kenya/the first season rains in bimodal areas in Uganda/the Season B rains in Rwanda and Burundi, and the Belg rains in Ethiopia from February/March/April to May/June/July are expected to start at seasonally normal times and be near normal in terms of total rainfall.
• The October to March Xays/Dadaa rains over coastal areas of Djibouti and northwestern Somalia are expected to continue to be near normal to above normal in terms of total rainfall due to warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Aden.
• Abnormally high land surface temperatures, up to two degrees above normal, are likely between January and March in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, western Uganda, and central and northern Tanzania (Figure 1).
• Many of these areas had drier than normal October to December rainy seasons, especially in southeastern Kenya and southern Somalia.