OVERVIEW

Owing to relentless armed conflict and population displacement, over 6.45 million people or 57 per cent of South Sudan’s population will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, with an estimated 45,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). The food security situation is projected to further deteriorate from May to July 2019, with about 6.87 million people (60 percent of the population) facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, with an estimated 50,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

The high levels of acute food insecurity in South Sudan continue to be driven by the cumulative effects of the national and localized conflicts and population displacements. These contributed to insuficient crop production, with only 52 per cent of the 2019 national cereal needs met by harvests as compared to 61% of 2018. In addition, conflct has disrupted households’ access to natural food sources including wild foods, fish and livestock.

A total of 860,168 children are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2019 based on the results of the SMART nutrition surveys, Food security and nutrition monitoring system and admission trends for 2018. Forty-two counties are classied as Phase 3 (Serious) and above. Counties of Akobo, Ayod, Canal Pigi, Pibor, Duk, Uror (Jonglei state), Abiemnhom, Panyijar and Pariang (Unity State), Twic (Warrap state) and Awerial (Lakes) are classified as Critical (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 4). No county was classified as IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical). However, further deterioration is expected in the projection period (lean) May-August 2019 with more than 55 counties classified as Phase 3 (Serious) and above, therefore requiring urgent and targeted response.

Nearly 7 million people expected to be in acute food insecurity at the height of lean season

22 February 2019, Juba - Nearly 7 million people in South Sudan could face acute food insecurity at the height of this lean season (May-July), three United Nations agencies warned today, urging for scaled-up humanitarian assistance and better access to humanitarian relief.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report released today in Juba by the Government of South Sudan in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP) shows that the number of people who are acutely food insecure has already increased by 13 per cent since January last year.

This includes some 30,000 people who are already experiencing extreme food insecurity (in catastrophe phase or IPC5, the highest level of food insecurity) in Jonglei and Lakes states, in eastern and central South Sudan.

The report shows that food insecurity continues to be driven by the cumulative effects of conflict, insufficient food production and associated population displacement. Local cereal production in 2019 will only supply 52 percent of the country's cereal needs, compared to 61 per cent in 2018.

Conflict continues to disrupt food production, deplete livestock and constrain people's access to alternative food sources. Prolonged dry spells, flooding, crop disease and pest infestation have severely impacted agricultural production which is largely rain-dependent. Poor people have been particularly vulnerable to high food prices and the limited availability of food in markets.

There is an urgent need for more funds to scale up humanitarian assistance to save lives and protect livelihoods. At the current level of assistance, the report indicates, some 50,000 people will be facing catastrophe (extreme food insecurity) between May and July. Without any assistance, this number could rise to 260,000.

"The projections are alarming and food security continues to worsen. Together with the people of South Sudan, we need to act urgently to reverse this trend. Our priority is to support families to maintain and increase their production, and help agro-pastoral communities preserve their livelihoods. Last year, FAO's distribution of seeds and agricultural tools had a positive impact on the country's food security, but this is not enough," said Pierre Vauthier, the FAO Representative a.i. in South Sudan. "If the peace agreement signed last September is fully sustained, FAO can further support returnees to rebuild their livelihoods and contribute to the recovery of the nation," he added.

There is a real risk of famine in those areas which are already very food insecure, should the overall situation in the country deteriorate and should there be a prolonged absence of humanitarian assistance. Parts of the country that are particularly at risk are Unity, Jonglei, Upper Nile and Lakes.

"Food insecurity is increasing in 2019," said Simon Cammelbeeck, WFP's Acting Country Director in South Sudan "Unless we scale up humanitarian and recovery activities soon, more and more people will be at risk. This is especially worrying as those most in need of assistance are malnourished women and children. We are gearing up to respond to this large rise in food needs."

Malnutrition levels remain critical in many areas, with some 860,000 children under the age of five severely malnourished. However, there is likely to be an increased incidence of acute malnutrition during the coming lean season in most parts of the country.

"As access to those in need improves due to the peace process, we have been making significant progress in treating severe malnutrition in children, with a recovery rate above 80 per cent," said Andrea Suley, UNICEF Representative, ai, in South Sudan. "Yet, our nutrition programme has a funding gap of 88 per cent or US$55.4 million. If funding is not timely secured, the children we know how to save may not make it."

Humanitarian support

"Sustained humanitarian support is required to address the immediate food assistance needs. It is also critical to support resilience activities to improve livelihoods and to increase families' ability to cope," said Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan, Alain Noudehou. "Full and timely implementation of the peace agreement is therefore essential to allow displaced people - the majority of whom are women and children - to return home and to resume their lives."

The three UN agencies, along with other humanitarian organizations, have conducted massive relief operations since conflict erupted in late 2013. The Integrated Rapid Response Mechanism - mobile teams travelling usually by helicopter to reach people in isolated areas - is part of an inter-agency effort to provide immediate, life-saving support.

In 2019, FAO aims to provide 800,000 farming, fishing and agro-pastoral households in severely food insecure areas with vegetable and crop seeds, agricultural hand tools and fishing equipment. One crop kit enables a family to grow enough cereals to last more than six months - which can go a long way to alleviating hunger. In support of agro-pastoralist communities that tend to be heavily dependent on livestock, FAO is carrying out vaccinations and other animal health services to prevent large-scale animal mortality.

To meet the increased needs, WFP will provide the most vulnerable people with a variety of support including life-saving food and cash distributions in areas with working markets; food in return for work on the construction and rehabilitation of community assets; food for school meals; and special products for the prevention and treatment of malnutrition among children, and pregnant or nursing women.

WFP is currently delivering assistance to meet immediate needs and to bolster people's resilience. WFP plans to pre-position 175,000 metric tons of food in more than 60 warehouses before the onset of the rainy season. Pre-positioning will not only help saves lives but will reduce delivery costs, making costly airdrops unnecessary when many areas are unreachable by road during the rainy season.

In 2019, UNICEF is targeting more than two million children and their mothers to provide quality nutrition services. UNICEF will provide micronutrient supplements, health and WASH services and counselling on appropriate infant feeding and hygiene practices to prevent acute malnutrition. Early detection of children in need of nutrition services will be ramped up and ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) will be provided to treat severely acute malnourished children. For UNICEF to reach the women and children targeted, additional funding is needed, as the current funds only cover the programme to end April 2019.

Contact

FAO
Mabior Mach, FAO South Sudan
+211 928892226
mabior.mach@fao.org

Adel Sarkozi, FAO Rome
+39 0657052537
adel.sarkozi@fao.org

UNICEF
Helene Ryeng, UNICEF South Sudan
+211 921 615 824
hsryeng@unicef.org

James Elder, UNICEF Regional Communication Chief, Nairobi
+254 715 581 222
jelder@unicef.org

WFP
Tomson Phiri, WFP South Sudan
+211 922 465 247
tomson.phiri@wfp.org

Peter Smerdon, WFP Regional Spokesperson, Nairobi.
+254 707 722 104
peter.smerdon@wfp.org

CONTEXT

Akobo town is located in the eastern side of Akobo County, Jonglei State, close to the land and river border crossings with Ethiopia. Akobo is a key point of trade and transit between South Sudan and Ethiopia.

Since the beginning of the crisis in 2013, this route has been used by South Sudanese heading to or coming back from refugee camps in Ethiopia. In two locations, Tirgol Port and Market Port, REACH has recorded arrivals and departures of South Sudanese on a daily basis since May 2015. In order to provide an indication of wider trends, data is collected on the volume of movement, as well as the motivations and intentions of those travelling. Due to insecurity and other issues, data is not always collected on a daily basis. To correct for this inconsistency, data presented for general movement trends across months represents an average based on the number of days of data collection each month. The data presented here is not representative, rather indicative of movement trends for the assessed population.

The following findings are based on primary data collected between 2 and 30 November 2018. REACH teams interviewed arrivals and departures at the household (HH) level. In November, REACH interviewed 119 HHs who were arriving in and 311 HHs who were departing from Akobo town. These HHs interviewed were selected amongst those arriving to or leaving from Akobo town by boat.

PHILLIP MBUGO The flow of traffic between Yambio and Mundri has increased over the past few weeks as Bangladeshi peacekeepers serving with the UN Mission in South Sudan continue with much-needed road repairs.

Some 100 kilometres have been restored to an acceptable standard since early January, with the remaining stretch set to be completed at some point in April.

The Chief the Bangladeshi Engineering Unit, Major Ajiat Thapa, is happy with the steady progress being made.

“The road maintenance work is going very smoothly, mainly because the people here are very friendly and always support us in all the ways possible,” he says, explaining that such assistance include bringing water to the road workers.

James Bidal, who frequently drives between Yambio and Juba, praises the efforts to repair the road.

“I would like to thank UNMISS for this initiative, which has made it easier for me to drive to the capital. Now it takes two days instead of four,” Mr. Bidal reveals, perhaps falling for the temptation to floor it on the improved stretch of the still rather dusty road.

Female passenger Aniiri Michael adds that a cheaper and faster link to Juba is likely to significantly increase the number of people able to make the trip to the capital as expensive air tickets won’t be needed.

The UN peacekeeping mission and a variety of humanitarian actors will obviously also reap the benefits of smoother overland transport options.

SITE UPDATES

National CCCM Cluster

• National Cluster team involved on South Sudan Humanitarain fund(SSHF) standard allocation(SA) 1 for 2019. The Cluster received 1 million USD to carry out CCCM activities. Four cluster partners were awarded with SSHF SA1 to implement camp management mobile response in 16 high priority counties in South Sudan.

Wau

• On Thursday 10th January CM attended a meeting on the return of the PoC1 IDPs, chaired by RRP and attended by UNHCR, WFP, OCHA and the IOM Migration Health Unit. Whilst there had been a tentative schedule to start UNHAS ights on Tuesday 15th January to begin returning IDPs to their requested areas of origin, starting with Juba.
Following the meeting, the partners met with the IDPs to inform them of the situation and that a plan is still being finalized.

• CM has started relocating people in Block C1 to ll up the empty shelters and empty out entire shelter blocks so that they can be dismantled. Thus far a total of seven empty shelter blocks have been dismantled.

Collective Centers:

• AFOD, IOM Shelter/NFI and CCCM SFP met to discuss plans to roll out the cash based intervention in Lokoloko to the IDPs from Ngoku that moved from the Toby primary school. A follow-up meeting is planned with Protection partners to reduce and mitigate protection risks that could arise from handing out cash in an urban area.

• AFOD CM is in the process of removing empty shelters from Cathedral and St. Joseph, noting that many people are leaving Cathedral as households return to their areas of origin.

• AFOD CM is conducting re safety training for volunteers in all of the collective centres.

Bor PoC

• In Bor PoC, Communication With Communities(CWC) team produced and played 2 program during the course of the reporting period, Primary school examination and health messaging from Health Link.

Malakal PoC

• To mitigate against fire outbreaks in light of increased dry weather conditions, CM conducted fire preventions awareness campaigns in Blocks A, B, and C of the site.

• Community leaders concerned about cold spell and demanding for blankets. Residents of Sector 1 requesting for improvements to their shelters before the onset of the rain season.

Aburoc

• In an effort to improve re safety within the site, the Fire Safety Committee members who conducted re prevention awareness in the site, facilitated by CM.

• Community members in Blocks 1, 4, and 5 are concerned the quality of water (colour), and insufiticient capacity for household water storage; partners tested water and established a higher presence of iron, but safe for human consumption.

• CM facilitated the regular leaders’ meeting which was attended by 54 community leaders, including women, as part of the coordination of services within the site.

Bentiu

PoC:

• Community meetings conducted during the reporting period with the different community leadership structures as part of enhancing information sharing amongst the POC population and the partners’

• Routine recreational indoor activities implemented by IOM-CM i.e Pool table, Darts ongoing Practice by musical groups, Volleyball practice sessions and Kickboxing on-going in the youth center.

Collective Sites/Mobile Response:

• On 11th January 2019 Mobile CM did a presentation on Beyon Bentiu Response(BBR) Service Map during Humanitarian Coordination meeting.

• During the reporting week, Mobile CM team received a total of 21 complaints. 16 lost cards, 4 Bio-metric card registrations, and 5 families with 11 individuals missed GFD in Nhialdiu.

Armed clashes in South Sudan forced hundreds of South Sudanese people to seek refuge in border areas in Ituri Province, DRC. UNHCR will support the registration of refugees and their possible relocation.

Seven primary schools were rehabilitated in Kasai Province, benefitting over 3,000 children.
Voluntary Repatriation of Rwandan refugees resumed with 94 repatriations from North and South Kivu Provinces.

■ Individual plots of land were allocated to 470 Burundian refugee households (out of a total of 522) who had been relocated to Mulongwe settlement, South Kivu Province, in August and September 2018. 100 households have already started to build shelters on these parcels, while 58 shelters were finalized this month.

■ 35,434 refugees at Lusenda camp and Mulongwe settlement (both in Fizi Territory, South Kivu province) received biomass briquettes, totaling 93 tons distributed. Biomass briquettes are produced by refugees and locals, and provide an alternative and environmentally-friendly solution for cooking.

■ In Lusenda camp, 2,881 kitchen sets were distributed to Burundian refugee households (8,789 people), or 71% of the total planned. Distributions will continue depending on the availability of non-food items (NFIs), in order to cover all eligible refugees relocated to Lusenda in 2015.

■ UNHCR distributed food to 420 Burundian asylum-seekers who were awaiting confirmation of their refugee status and transfer to Mulongwe settlement.

■ 753 school kits were distributed to students in Mulongwe settlement. Miscellaneous schooling expenses were paid for 500 primary school students and 1,390 secondary school students.

■ UNHCR’s partner Action Aid finalized the construction of two kindergartens at Mulongwe settlement and in Lusenda camp, to reinforce the capacity of existing structures which will be able to host up to 200 children each.

■ UNHCR and its partner Association pour le Développement Economique et Social (ADES) installed seven manual water pumps at Mulongwe settlement, while 58 latrine pits were constructed by refugees who had received latrine construction kits.

OVERVIEW OF THE CRISIS

Despite peace-building efforts, CAR is sinking into a cycle of violence, which has spread into several areas of the country, including regions considered relatively stable, creating growing humanitarian needs and fear that the country will plunge into chaos. One in five people are displaced, while 63 per cent of the Central African population is in dire need of humanitarian assistance and protection.

The Central African Republic (CAR) is the third-largest humanitarian crisis in the world, after Yemen and Syria, according to the proportion of the total population in need of humanitarian assistance. According to the 2019 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO), 2.9 million Central Africans, more than half of whom are children, are in need of humanitarian and protection assistance, i.e. a 16 per cent increase over the previous year. Some 1.6 million people have acute and immediate humanitarian needs. Despite a certain lull in some localities, which facilitated the return of more than 230,000 people to their places of origin, there has been ongoing forced displacement in several regions of the country throughout 2018. As of 30 September 2018, more than 640,000 internally displaced people were reported throughout the country and the number of Central African refugees rose from 542,896 to 573,242. Two thirds of IDPs are housed in host families and one third resides in 77 sites.

Underlying Causes of the Crisis

The underlying causes of violence are multiple. Conflict indicators are political and economic, translating into ethnic, religious and inter-community tensions used for political purposes. Some armed groups have reached a level of organization and access to resources that consolidated their power, and enabled them to arm themselves and spread their control. At the same time, the fragmentation of some groups can also be observed. Armed groups operate in more than half of the country and organize parallel systems or replace the State in some areas where its services are decentralized.

Ranked 187th on the 2018 Human Development Index, CAR is second to last before Niger (188).
The redeployment of the State, although it has begun, is not yet effective over a large part of the national territory. Therefore, the Central African State’s capacity to respond to the crisis remains very limited. In many regions, access to basic social services, such as education and health, remains predominantly provided by humanitarian partners.

The phenomenon of transhumance (i.e, cattle migration) is also a destabilizing factor in the north-west (Bouar-BocarangaBaboua region), the west (Berberati region, Gamboula, AmadaGaza), the center-west (Bossembéle-Yaloké region), the centereast (Kouango-Bambari-Alindao-Kembé region), the north of the Ouham Prefecture and in Nana-Gribizi. During these periods, an increase in crime and violence is observed.

Impact of the crisis

Serious violations and abuses of human rights law and international humanitarian law continue to be perpetrated in a context of impunity, which exacerbates tensions in several areas of the country.

A crisis of protection: The crisis is foremost a protection one, and requires the commitment of all parties to the protection of civilians. Between January and September 2018, 9,214 incidents related to protection were reported, i.e. an average of more than 1,000 incidents per month.

Attacks against health personnel, facilities and schools:
Between January 2017 and October 2018, 14 health facilities and 89 schools were attacked, with a worrying trend in 2018 also involving incidents against educational personnel.

Similarly, the number of incidents against humanitarian actors has increased alarmingly. As of 31 October 2018, some 338 incidents against humanitarian actors were recorded, which is higher than the number recorded throughout 2017 (333).

Persistence of GBV cases: Women and children also continue to pay the heavy price of violence. A large number of women have been victims of violence. Indeed, from January to August 2018, 5,733 cases of gender-based violence (GBV) were recorded in the Gender-Based Violence Information Management System (GBVIMS), 21 per cent of which were cases of sexual violence.

Increase in internal displacement: The persistence of conflicts has led more than one million Central Africans to leave their homes either forcibly (fire/destruction of houses) or preemptively. As of 30 September 2018, the Commission on Population Movement (CMP) reported 643,396 internally displaced persons, while UNHCR reported 573,242 refugees in neighboring countries. More than half of the displaced are children. In 2018, an increasing number of unaccompanied and separated children (704) were identified as a result of forced population displacements.

The categories of populations most affected by the crisis remain displaced persons, returnees, host families and populations remaining in conflict areas.

For example, in IDP sites, the prevalence rate of global acute malnutrition (GAM) is above the emergency threshold in 16 out of 18 sites, i.e. 5/5 in Obo (Haut Mbomou), 3/4 in Alindao (Basse Kotto) and 8/9 in Bambari (Ouaka) (SMART survey 2017-2018). In more than 70 sites and many host families, IDPs’ access to water, hygiene and sanitation (WASH) has deteriorated significantly during 2018 due to insufficient funding and the withdrawal of some humanitarian actors. Poor hygiene conditions, poor primary health care coverage and crowded sites and foster families increase the risk of disease spread and outbreaks of epidemics. Makeshift shelters in which displaced persons find refuge do not provide sufficient protection against bad weather and animal bites, exposing them to immediate health risks.

40 per cent of the population affected by food insecurity: 1.9 million Central Africans, or 40% of the population, are food insecure (IPC phases 3 & 4), while only 54% of households have access to drinking water and 34% practice open-air defecation, due to the country’s poor drinking water coverage and low level of hygiene infrastructure.

The crisis has severely reduced access to essential services. In October 2016, out of the 1,010 health facilities in the country, 236 (23 per cent) still bore the wounds of the crisis (partial or total destruction). While some of these damaged health facilities have been rehabilitated, others were destroyed in 2017 and 2018. To date, only 48 per cent (485) of the nutritional care units are operational and 340 schools are non-functional, 28 of which are occupied by internally displaced people or armed groups. Chronic malnutrition affects 4 out of 10 children under five years of age. In 2018, the country recorded three outbreaks of acute watery diarrhea, one outbreak of typhoid fever, one outbreak of Hepatitis E, one outbreak of whooping cough and two outbreaks of monkey pox.

Major challenges in the humanitarian response

Essential services: Upon the collapse of the State’s structures over a large part of the country following the 2013 conflict, the humanitarian community is compelled to continue to replace the State in order to ensure access to essential services.

Insecurity and limited access: Infrastructure destruction, confrontations between armed groups, attacks against the civilian population and infrastructures, as well as incidents against humanitarian actors have affected humanitarian access and operations. In 2018, six` humanitarian workers lost their lives and 21 others were wounded. Between January and October 2018, 20 organizations had to temporarily withdraw from their intervention areas, depriving the population of vital assistance. Hostilities have spread to new areas, some of which are extremely difficult to access for security as well as logistical reasons (villages far from major urban centers, etc.), making assessment missions and humanitarian response difficult.

Delayed implementation of economic and social recovery: The impoverishment of communities remains alarming throughout the country. The delays in implementing and operationalizing the activities of the Peace Recovery and Consolidation Plan in CAR (RCPCA) and the lack of support for the basic socio-economic sectors keep several regions of the country dependent on humanitarian assistance, while increasing the risk of falling back into the humanitarian crisis in other areas.

Underfunding of humanitarian action: Chronic underfunding affects the ability of humanitarian actors to respond to the increasingly urgent needs of the population. As of 10 November 2018, US$222 million have been mobilized for the 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), i.e. only 43 per cent of the required funds

South Sudanese citizens are demanding democratic reforms through strategic nonviolent action

BY: Maria J. Stephan; Nicholas Zaremba

On September 12 of last year, South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) with South Sudan People Liberation Movement in Opposition chairman Dr. Riek Machar and several other armed groups. Meanwhile, South Sudanese civil society has sought to further advance the country’s peace process through coordinated, strategic nonviolent actions and campaigns.

According to the deal, the armed forces must be unified, and a transitional government should be formed by May 2019. However, at the midway point, the agreement’s implementation is facing many challenges including: a general lack of funding needed to carry out reforms; little progress on the reintegration of armed groups; military offenses against non-signatory groups; reports of assaults on peace monitors; and localized violence including the detestable accounts of mass rapes in Bentiu. The peace deal is being implemented amid an ongoing economic crisis and widespread food insecurity. As a result, many displaced South Sudanese feel that it is unsafe to return home.

Nonetheless, there is hope among South Sudanese that this agreement will finally bring about peace and there have been some positive indicators. For example, some prominent opposition and former cabinet members have returned to Juba. The government has also released some political prisoners, and is taking steps to create key institutions like the National Pre-Transition Committee, the National Constitutional Amendment Committee and the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Monitoring and Verification Mechanisms. Furthermore, there has been a marked decrease in violence in conflict-affected areas.

However, the prospects for sustainable peace in South Sudan will be strengthened if the country’s civil society and grassroots leaders mobilize to ensure that their visions of a peaceful South Sudan are integrated into the peace process. Fortunately, this is already happening. Amplifying their nonviolent activism and supporting their efforts to organize strategic coalitions, campaigns and movements should be a priority of external actors seeking to support peace backed by justice and inclusion in the country.

Citizen Engagement is a Necessity

At the onset of the High-Level Revitalization Forum negotiations in December 2017, African Union Chairperson Moussa Faki emphasized the importance of an active role for civil society, religious leaders, and South Sudanese grassroots groups in bringing peace to the country. Likewise, when the current peace agreement was being finalized, the Troika governments (Britain, the United States, and Norway) released a statement arguing that “the best hope for sustainable peace is a process inclusive of ordinary men and women, civil society, religious leaders, ethnic minorities, and other excluded groups.”

These statements underscore that true peace will not come to South Sudan merely through a top-down, negotiated agreement by political leaders, but rather in an environment where citizens can wield collective power to press for reforms that will foster peace. As identified by a nationwide surveyconducted by the South Sudan Civil Society Forum (SSCSF), such measures may include: more robust engagement with citizens on the R-ARCSS; accountability for R-ARCSS violators; releasing political detainees; communicating with non-signatories; making the National Dialogue more inclusive and independent; and establishing the transitional justice institutions outlined in Chapter V of the R-ARCSS.

It is critical that citizen input on the peace process is taken seriously in South Sudan. About 50 percentof countries emerging from a civil war relapse into violent conflict within 10 years. However, democratic transitions fostered by nonviolent pressure are about four times more successful than top-down transitions driven by powerholders.

Burgeoning Nonviolent Action

Fortunately, South Sudanese civil society and grassroots leaders are mobilizing to make their visions of a just and sustainable peace in South Sudan known among government leaders. These groups are aiming to bring peace to South Sudan, not just through traditional conflict resolution mechanisms like negotiation, mediation, and dialogue, but through the application of collective nonviolent action that includes tactics like vigils, marches, and street art. Such extra-institutional actions are key to building unity and lowering levels of fear.

For example, the popular arts-based youth campaign, Anataban, is a national leader in drawing attention to obstacles to peace and sharing their vision of a peaceful South Sudan. In response to The Profiteers—a documentary highlighting the role that corruption in neighboring countries played in the perpetuation of the civil war in South Sudan—Anataban partnered with Kenyan activists in a protest to demand the Kenyan government stop elites from looting South Sudan’s resources and laundering money. Additionally, Anataban hosts concerts, poetry slams, comedy shows, and radio programs, providing South Sudanese with a platform to express their fatigue with violence and hope for peace.

Furthermore, Anataban participates in the #NadafaLeBeledna (“cleaning our country”) campaign—a monthly cleaning exercise, led by the OKAY Africa foundation, whereby Juba youth collect trash to physically demonstrate the cleansing of their country following years of war and to provide a service to the community in the absence of regular trash collection, exemplifying the type of nonviolent action Gandhi called for in his “Constructive Program.”

On March 9 and 10, Anataban will host its third annual Hagana Festival. This event is a celebration of South Sudanese culture and is an opportunity to plea for peace. It features traditional and contemporary music, theater, dance, comedy, spoken word, fashion and art, and is attended by thousands of South Sudanese each year.

Apart from Anataban, a new coalition of over 50 civil society organizations (CSOs), calling itself the New Tribe, has been active in coordinating nonviolent activities and serving as a hub for training activists and peacebuilders across the country on how to analyze conflict and strategically sequence nonviolent activities to advance their goals. The New Tribe has emphasized the importance of citizen-led nonviolent action as means of building genuine peace and democracy and discussed ways that all South Sudanese participate.

The New Tribe also engages in direct, strategic nonviolent action. They’ve petitioned the government to lift restrictions on civic space, engaged in dialogue to request due process for political prisoners, spoken with traditional leaders to reduce local violence, and held public vigils.

South Sudanese women’s groups and organizations have engaged in sustained and coordinated action: The South Sudan Council of Churches–National Women’s Program still holds regular peace demonstrations in Juba; the South Sudan Women Coalition for Peace and Development is petitioningthat the transitional government is comprised of at least 30 percent women; Crown the Woman–South Sudan is speaking out against sexual and gender-based violence; and the Eve Organization is empowering women through policy advocacy and leadership training.

The actions of these groups are gaining attention. As South Sudan expert Douglas Johnson recently noted, we are “beginning to see not only in youth groups, but in women's movements and other civil society and civilian organizations a growing demand that there must be some sort of accountability for the atrocities.”

These groups are looking beyond the latest signed power-sharing agreement and are seeking to address issues that lay at root of conflict in South Sudan like corruption, tribalism, and impunity; and are pushing for specific reforms that reflect those identified in the SSCSF survey.

South Sudan’s civic space is among the most limited in the world. There is little press freedom, critics of the government are repressed, NGOs are heavily monitored, and any meeting is subjected to be attended by security forces. On July 28, nationally known economist and peace activist, Peter Biar Ajak was arrested and detained after challenging the South Sudanese leadership. Now his lawyers are worried that his life could be in danger due to accusations of treason. However, South Sudan’s increasingly engaged civil society has taken action, calling for him to either be released or brought to trial.

Success through Strategic Planning and Training

Research indicates that nonviolent campaigns and movements can achieve their goals even in the most repressive contexts. Factors that are most relevant to a campaign or movement’s success is a group’s commitment to nonviolent discipline, its size, level of inclusion, and diversity of nonviolent tactics. The most successful nonviolent campaigns and movements have embraced strategic planning, which involves carefully selecting and sequencing nonviolent tactics that: attract more people; are in accord with a conflict’s power dynamics; and are relevant to the interests, positions, and needs of the key parties in the conflict.

The Liberian women’s-led movement to end the country’s civil war offers insights into the strategic selection of nonviolent tactics. In the beginning of the movement, when power was concentrated with the government and rebel groups, the women carried out low-risk, but effective tactics like taking off their jewelry and wearing white during vigils. As the balance of power began to shift, the women engaged in direct action like sit-ins and sex strikes to put pressure on the men to lay down their weapons, and eventually blocked the doors of the negotiating room and refused to leave until a peace deal was signed.

Strategic planning for nonviolent action—which entails creating concrete goals, assessing conflict, and determining how to combine dialogue and direct action to build strong participation—will help sustain the recent uptick in nonviolent activity in South Sudan.

Along with the many CSOs, campaigns, and informal grassroots groups in South Sudan that are actively building a peace movement, unaffiliated teachers and traditional and community leaders also play a tremendous role in communicating, organizing, and mobilizing their respective communities. These civil society organizations and informal nonviolent groups can be convened and connected by established peacebuilding and nonviolent groups like the Organization for Nonviolence and Development and Nonviolent Peaceforce among others.

These strategic planning and networking processes can be complicated. Thus, intentional education and training is essential. Many successful campaigns and movements integrated training into their activities, focusing on skills in organizing, media, strategic planning, and nonviolent action. The U.S. civil rights movement, the Filipino Yellow Revolution, and the “Balai Citoyen” movement in Burkina Faso provide just a few examples.

The next four months represent a critical window for South Sudan. While a peace deal signed on paper may provide a roadmap to peace, strategic nonviolent citizen engagement will be necessary to address persistent problems like local violence, corruption, and economic disparity. South Sudanese are demanding democratic reforms, and strengthening and focusing collective action and movement-building will help them achieve it. Diplomatic recognition of these civic actors, media coverage, and donor support for their strategic planning, organizing, and coordination would help enable a participatory and rooted peace.

Severe food insecurity outcomes persist in conflict and drought-affected areas

Key Messages

Conflict and macroeconomic shocks continued to drive severe acute food security across Yemen and South Sudan in January. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread, and large populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) face wide food gaps and/or extreme depletion of livelihood assets. In Yemen, should conflict increase such that imports and trade in staple food commodities are significantly disrupted, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be possible. In South Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely in the prolonged absence of humanitarian assistance. Areas of greatest concern remain Sa’ada and Hajjah governorates in Yemen, and Greater Upper Nile, and parts of Western Bar El Ghazal and Lakes in South Sudan. Sustained, large-scale food assistance is critical to saving lives and preventing further deterioration in food security outcomes.

High food prices in December and January continue to constrain household purchasing power and access to food for poor households in Sudan, South Sudan, and parts of Uganda’s Karamoja sub-region. Sorghum and millet prices in Sudan were 270 and 150 percent above the five-year and last year averages, respectively, and 170 and 133 percent above the five-year and last year average, respectively, in Wau, South Sudan. In Kaabong, Karamoja, sorghum prices were 22 and 80 percent above the five-year and last year average, respectively. This has driven declining terms of trade, leading to household food gaps and use of crisis coping strategies. As a result, poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!).

Below-average October-December rainfall and atypically high land surface temperatures since January are causing earlier-than-normal depletion of rangeland resources in central and northern Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia. In Kenya, trekking distances to water and pasture resources are already 30 to 45 percent above average in Turkana county. In Ethiopia, current conditions are also being exacerbated by conflict-induced displacement and restricted humanitarian access. As livestock body conditions deteriorate, declines in livestock production and cereal-to-livestock terms of trade are expected to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until May. Somalia’s Guban Pastoral livelihood zone would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) without food assistance.

According to the NOAA/CPC, March to May rainfall is forecast to begin one week early and be average or above average over much of the East African region. In contrast, below-average rainfall is likely in south-central coastal Somalia and coastal and southeastern Kenya. Poor rainfall in these pastoral, agropastoral, and marginal agricultural areas would negatively impact livestock body conditions and value and crop production, likely leading to an increase in the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). While an early onset would benefit pastoral areas, it would likely disrupt crop production in areas where Deyr/short rains harvests and Gu/long rains land preparation will have not yet been completed.

The largest outbreak of Ebola to date in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has already claimed the lives of over 500 people. Germany is helping to fight the disease by providing humanitarian aid on the ground.

The Ebola virus broke out in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri in northeastern Congo at the beginning of August 2018. With over 800 confirmed cases at present and over 500 deaths as a result of Ebola, the outbreak is considered to be the largest to date in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The affected region has been wracked by violence and conflict for decades. The number of internally displaced persons in the region is estimated to be over one million, of whom the majority are women and children.

Employees of humanitarian aid organisations and the Congolese Government are working together in a bid to contain the outbreak. Priorities include treating infected people, vaccinating those directly at risk and raising awareness about risks as well as potentially life-saving hygiene measures. However, access on the part of aid workers to those affected is severely restricted due to persistent armed conflicts. Aid measures have had to be suspended time and again because of ongoing hostilities.

What is Germany doing?

The Federal Foreign Office is supporting life-saving aid, such as the distribution of food and health care, which amounted to 48.7 million euros in humanitarian aid in the Congo in 2018. The Federal Government is also the largest donor to the WHO’s Contingency Fund for Emergencies (CFE) and the second-largest donor to the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF).

Hygiene measures in the region

One of the challenges in preventing dangerous diseases such as Ebola is the poor supply of clean drinking water and sanitation. Clean water and soap alone can prevent the transmission of the virus and save lives.

Thanks to support from the Federal Foreign Office, Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe has managed to reduce the risk of infection for more than 120,000 people in the provinces affected by the disease by providing information and setting up wells, latrines and hand-washing stations. Newly established water committees in villages are attending to the maintenance and cleaning of drinking water and sanitary facilities. Furthermore, training courses on hygiene are being offered for members of the community.

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Washing hands as a key lesson“For the people, the virus is like a declaration of war against their village,” says Eugénie Angeango, who runs a school in the province of Ituri. She wants to teach her 316 pupils one key lesson above all others, namely the importance of washing their hands. “Our equipment is very poor, and we often don’t have simple things like a piece of soap.” Because of the urgent need, the school was integrated into the Ebola prevention measures overseen by Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe. ”We now have six 20 litre hand-washing canisters complete with taps stationed outside each classroom door. And there’s also ten bars of soap,” says Angeango. “So now everyone can wash their hands regularly – several times a day.”

Precautionary measures also in neighbouring countries

There are fears that Ebola could spread to neighbouring countries on account of the fragile security situation. Germany is therefore supporting Ebola prevention measures by the WHO and Malteser International in the neighbouring countries of South Sudan, the Central African Republic and Uganda. The aim is to reduce the risk of infection through raising awareness and, at the same time, to set up the necessary centres in order to identify and treat initial infections as quickly as possible.

In January 2019, an estimated 6.17 million people faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, with an estimated 30,000 people classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In the projection period of February-April 2019, an estimated 6.45 million people would face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse, with an estimated 45,000 people classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). This is expected to increase to an estimated 6.87 million people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity or worse at the peak of the lean season (May-July 2019), with an estimated 50,000 people classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Food insecurity is largely driven by conflict and related displacement, low crop production, the ongoing macro-economic crisis, climatic shocks and humanitarian access challenges.

How we collect and harness data to find better ways to deal with malnutrition in South Sudan

By: Sarah King,
Regional Nutrition & Advocacy
Officer, Action Against Hunger

Two years ago this week, famine was declared in parts of South Sudan. Famine is a rare and specific technical classification of food insecurity, mortality, and malnutrition among populations. It is declared when the following criteria are met, among others:

• 1 in 5 households face an extreme food shortage

• More than 30% of the population is malnourished

• At least 2 in every 10,000 people die per day

• 4 in every 10,000 children under five die per day.

In this century, famine has been declared twice: in Somalia in July 2011, after an estimated 250,000 people died, and in Unity State, South Sudan, in February 2017.

After major humanitarian aid interventions, these areas of South Sudan are no longer experiencing famine, but immense challenges remain. More than seven million people in the world’s newest nation are in dire need of humanitarian assistance and protection. According to the latest analysis, released on February 22, hunger continues to rise: the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity has increased by 13 percent since January last year.

Action Against Hunger has worked in South Sudan since 1985 – long before the country gained independence in 2011 – helping vulnerable communities improve nutrition, food security, water, sanitation, and hygiene. Our expert teams also carry out nutrition assessments: we collect and analyze crucial community data to help organizations, governments, and world leaders understand the country’s food crisis and how best to tackle it.

Below, Sarah King, Action Against Hunger’s Regional Nutrition and Advocacy Officer for East Africa, shares the story behind one of these surveys.

When conflict broke out in South Sudan five years ago, a protracted humanitarian crisis began, resulting in an unstable economy, widespread political insecurity, destruction of infrastructure, severe food insecurity, and high rates of malnutrition. In situations where the need is acute, how does Action Against Hunger determine what kinds of interventions are needed, and whether nutrition is improving?

Our teams collaborate closely with communities, listening and learning from their perspectives. We are also fueled by data, which is why we work on public health surveillance and evaluation activities, assessing the impact and effectiveness of our programs and monitoring the nutrition situation on the ground closely. This process includes Standard Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition surveys– SMART surveys – an assessment method designed specifically for measuring malnutrition in emergency situations.

The survey looks at two main indicators that can reliably signal how severe a food crisis is for an entire community: nutrition status of children under five years old and mortality rate of the general population.

Last year, I co-managed one of these SMART surveys in Aweil East, an area in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, South Sudan. With a team of 24 data collectors, we visited 450 households in 35 villages throughout Aweil East over a period of just seven days. In each household, we measured the height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference of children between six months and five years old – these are the measurements used to determine nutrition status.

We also interviewed parents and other caregivers, asking questions about household mortality, illness, sanitation, and food security. At the end of the survey, we compiled and analyzed the data and submitted it to South Sudan’s Nutrition Information Working Group for validation.

The survey discovered an estimated global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 21% -- this is the combined rate of both moderate and severe forms of acute malnutrition. GAM rates over 15% are classified as “Critical” – the most urgent of the World Health Organization’s emergency standards. We also found high rates of food security and hunger, indicating that families in the region face significant challenges accessing food and are frequently unable to achieve nutrient adequate diets with the resources available.

Our survey’s most important finding is that, despite the health, nutrition, sanitation, and food security services provided by humanitarian organizations, two out of every ten children were experiencing acute malnutrition, also known as wasting – the deadliest form of malnutrition. These children either did not have enough food to eat, or they had an illness leading to sudden weight loss.

Humanitarian assistance has staved off the worst and has helped bring parts of the country back from famine, but the survey reveals more action is needed; too many children are still suffering from life-threatening malnutrition.

Public health surveillance plays an integral role in emergencies because the last thing we want to do is to make the situation worse. Nutrition assessments force the humanitarian community to take stock of our activities, to ask hard questions, and to push ourselves to improve – to find a better way to deal with hunger.

There are no easy answers to these questions, but it’s our priority every single day at Action Against Hunger. That’s why, in addition to our work in health centers diagnosing and treating malnourished children, we are constantly testing new approaches, collaborating with new partners to tackle malnutrition holistically, and using data to unflinchingly evaluate our work.

We innovate through our work with mothers, teaching them how to measure their children’s upper arms for malnutrition so they know when they’re sick. We teach parents how to prevent malnutrition through good sanitation and hygiene practices – some mothers are even building their own latrines. We aim to change norms that can have detrimental impacts on families, such as our trainings to reduce gender-based violence. And we grow gardens with communities, helping to foster nutritious diets and to provide opportunities for income. It is an immense responsibility and privilege to be part of this work each day.

This story was originally published as a blog post for the Congressional Hunger Center, where the author is a Mickey Leland International Hunger Fellow. It has been adapted for this website.

Yohannes Gedamu
Lecturer of Political Science, Georgia Gwinnett College

Many attempts at ceasefires and peace deals have failed in South Sudan. But a 2018 peace agreement, signed five years after the 2013 conflict began, has inspired hope for a lasting peace treaty. As part of the deal, former rebel leader Riek Machar has rejoined the government and resumed his vice president duties. However, it’s still unclear when Machar will to return to the capital Juba.

The young nation hasn’t fared well since the optimism that was felt around the world when the Republic gained its independence on 9 July 2011. Trouble began in December 2013, a mere 17 months after independence, when a power struggle within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement divided the political party. The movement is the political wing of the guerrilla army that led the struggle for independence.

President Salva Kiir retained leadership of the movement and his deputy Machar resigned from government to form the SPLM In Opposition.

The split triggered a new civil war between the two men’s supporters. It started in Juba but by the start of 2014 it had spread across the country. Sudan had once again descended into chaos assisted in no small way by the interference of its neighbours. Both Uganda and Sudan are reported to have backed factions during the war.

The expectation for sustained peace and prosperity had begun to fizzle until late 2018 when a revitalised peace deal was reached. The hope is that peace will prevail. But after so many failed attempts to end hostilities there is some scepticism. Can this latest truce hold?

Promising ending

This deal certainly offers a promising end to the young nation’s conflict. Since the regionally brokered agreement was reached, President Kiir has also signed a declaration giving amnesty to the troops, army generals, and leaders of the SPLM in Opposition.

The amnesty included Vice President Machar and was an important gesture showing Kiir’s commitment to moving on from the senseless war.

Moves such as these inspire optimism because they suggest that the government of South Sudan is finally committed to creating a functioning republic. So far Kiir and Machar have shown a willingness to act responsibly towards the successful implementation of the peace process.

But a lot still remains to be done. Stake holders like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the African Union, United Nations, and other state and non-state actors must actively support the peace process. Their first challenge would be to manage the region’s refugee problem.

Refugee management

Regional stability should be considered a priority. East Africa is a volatile region with many shared problems. A political challenge in any given state has the potential to immediately impact neighbouring states. And conflicts in any of the countries in the region have over the years created a variety of problems, one of which is an enduring refugee crisis.

Ethiopia now tops the global list of countries with the highest number of internally displaced citizens. Meanwhile, more than 800,000 Somalis have sought asylum in neighbouring countries.

In South Sudan, 2.4 million people have fled to neighbouring countries because of the war. Just over 2 million are internally displaced. Together, this is more than one third of the country’s population. This is a humanitarian crisis as well as a security risk because refugees are often targeted for recruitment by rebels, and even terrorists.

Refugee management and successful repatriation of nationals must therefore be a key pillar of South Sudan’s peace strategy.

Solid commitment

The second dragon that South Sudan must slay is disunity. The two SPLMs must present a united front. Their conflict resolution arrangements must be upheld at all costs.

If Kiir and Machar succeed in holding it together this time around the people of South Sudan may have a genuine shot at a peaceful existence. Which is not to say they won’t face some obstacles along the way.

There have already been a few violations to the cease fire agreement. This is a worrying development that must be nipped in the bud if South Sudan, its neighbours, and the world are truly committed to a viable peace process.

https://theconversation.com/south-sudan-peace-deal-offers-promising-end-to-conflict-but-challenges-remain-112167

Total number of refugees 101,866
Total arrivals in 2019 1,522
UNHCR/COR registered refugees 52,747
IPP registered & unregistered 49,119

Essential medicines supplies for one month secured for refugee clinics in South and West Kordofan.
Increased arrival flows observed in January.
Measles outbreak reported in refugee camps in White Nile State.

Population Update

• OVER 3,000 REFUGEES ARRIVED IN SUDAN IN JANUARY – The majority of refugees arrived in East Darfur (1,552), followed by West Kordofan (767), South Darfur (487), South Kordofan (167) and White Nile (138). The increased new arrival flows follow the re-opening of roads in South Sudan along the border. New arrival rates were the lowest in 2018 since the start of the conflict in South Sudan in December 2013, with 33,117 individuals arriving in Sudan. Inter-agency partners estimate a total of 50,000 new arrivals in 2019.

• BIOMETRIC (INDIVIDUAL) REGISTRATION INITIATED FOR NEW REFUGEE ARRIVALS IN AL LAIT LOCALITY, NORTH DARFUR – UNHCR and the Government of Sudan’s Commission for Refugees (COR) registration teams have registered 1,939 newly arrived individuals in 8 of 11 refugee settlement locations in Al Lait. This brings the total refugee population in Al Lait to 16,549 individuals. The exercise is anticipated for completion in February.

Operational Update

• SUSPECTED MEASLES CASES REPORTED IN CAMPS IN WHITE NILE STATE – Over 60 cases among both refugee and host communities have been reported in White Nile State clinics, with 55 of these cases reported in January in Al Redis II, Al Kashafa and Jouri camps. The State Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO) are leading on surveillance, laboratory support and case management. Measles vaccine coverage in the affected refugee camps is less than 50 per cent. With low vaccination coverage, displaced populations are more vulnerable to measles outbreaks, especially in overcrowded settings. A measles vaccination campaign in White Nile refugee camps is planned for mid-February.

• LIVESTOCK INTERVENTIONS AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING IMPROVED ACCESS TO INCOME FOR REFUGEE AND HOST COMMUNITY WOMEN IN KARIO AND AL NIMIR CAMPS IN EAST DARFUR – El Ruhama Organization distributed 10 cows to 10 women-headed refugee and host community households in Kario camp. Chicken flocks were also distributed to 25 refugee women living in the camp. These livestock interventions will provide targeted families with increased household income to meet basic needs, while also strengthening household food security and nutrition outcomes through the consumption of dairy, eggs and meat. El Ruhama has also initiated tailoring-training programmes for 20 women-headed refugee households in Al Nimir camp, and 5 women-headed households from the host community to support peaceful coexistence and broader community resilience goals. The women are learning how to manufacture school uniforms, and will receive materials, tools and market access support to enable them to start their businesses before the start of the 2019 school year.

• VULNERABLE REFUGEE CHILDREN SUPPORTED THROUGH HOME VISITS AND WINTER CLOTHING DISTRIBUTION ACROSS CAMPS IN WHITE NILE STATE – State social workers and refugee community volunteers conducted home visits in coordination with Plan International Sudan and the Child Development Foundation (CDF) to distribute winter clothing and school kits to vulnerable refugee children. Over 2,200 unaccompanied and separated children were visited and supported through these initiatives.

• OVER 560 PRE-SCHOOL AND BASIC-SCHOOL AGED REFUGEE CHILDREN ENROLLED IN ABU JUBAIHA LOCALITY, SOUTH KORDOFAN – The recent enrollment campaigns were conducted in refugee settlements in Qurayd and Gedeid and were led by the State Ministry of Education (SMoE) and supported by UNICEF. School supplies were also distributed. Classes are currently being conducted in temporary shelters; however, the SMoE has allocated land in both settlement areas for the construction of new schools with work to begin in February. In Dar Batti settlement in El Leri (Talodi locality), UNICEF supported the SMoE to rehabilitate 11 classrooms for improved access to quality education for over 600 refugee students.

Total number of refugees 848,091
IPP registered & unregistered 457,160
UNHCR/COR registered refugees 390,931
Total arrivals in 2019 3,111

Alessandra Giannini
chercheur en météorologie au Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/senior research scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society/laureate of "Make our planet great again", École normale supérieure (ENS)

Over the last decade many countries in the Sahel region – the semi-arid southern edge of the Sahara that stretches from Senegal to Ethiopia – have been embroiled in conflict. Populations in these countries are growing. This means that resources are increasingly scarce, and a highly variable climate is making agriculture based livelihoods more uncertain.

These events in the region have been linked to climate change.

Over the last 100 years there have been major swings in the region’s climate. Abundant rains in the 1950s and 1960s were followed by persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. The period since the mid-1990s is characterised by the alternation of good and bad years.

My latest research attributes this evolution to emissions from fossil fuel burning. We show that the most recent generation of global climate models account for the Sahel’s persistent drought when information about emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases is included. And that these models can do that. This is because they simulate changes in ocean temperatures and in regional rain consistently with what’s observed in the real world.

This is the first time that the 20th century evolution of rainfall over a region is shown to have been directly affected by human emissions – specifically pollutants and greenhouse gases. It’s also the first time that a single argument is proposed that consistently explains natural fluctuations and anthropogenic change. This argument rests on the influence of the oceans on regional climate.

Drying Sahel

The Sahel gets its rain from moisture that is carried by monsoon winds from the North Atlantic Ocean.

As air rises, it cools and condenses the moisture that falls back as rain. The warmer the North Atlantic Ocean, the greater the moisture that evaporates from its surface and is carried onto land, the wetter the Sahel.

But whether air can rise locally depends on where else air is rising globally. For example, during an El Niño event, air rises over a much warmer tropical Pacific, and, sinking elsewhere, produces widespread drought. During the second half of the 20th century greenhouse gases warmed the tropical oceans, making conditions for air to rise elsewhere similarly unfavourable.

At the same time the amounts of fine solid particles – known as sulfate aerosols – that were emitted by coal-fired plants increased, as countries rebuilt their economies after World War II. These cooled the North Atlantic directly, by reflecting incoming solar radiation, as well as indirectly, by favouring the formation of clouds which in turn reflect incoming radiation.

Our analysis of an ensemble of 29 global climate models shows that the unique combination of the warming of tropical oceans – caused by greenhouse gases – and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean – caused by sulfate aerosols – that characterised the second half of the 20th century led to the drying of the Sahel.

Our analysis also shows that despite the role of greenhouse gases in past drought, drought is not necessarily the future of climate change in the Sahel. Now that sulfate aerosol emissions have been drastically reduced around the North Atlantic, thanks to environmental legislation aimed at reducing acid rain and the public health consequences of pollution, warming has picked up in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Therefore, projections for wetter conditions under warming are in line with the explanation given above: air can now rise over the Sahel, fuelled by the increased moisture imported from a warming North Atlantic Ocean, in a challenge to the sinking motion imposed by warming tropical oceans elsewhere. Projections are also in line with emerging trends in observations toward a more vigorous water cycle: the more intense, though perhaps less frequent, rainfall events that have led to recurrent episodes of flooding over the past decade.

Future policies

Attribution of Sahel drought to emissions demonstrates that climate change is real, and is already here. Technologies to adapt to drought and more generally to climate variability do exist. They include seasonal climate prediction and land management practices like agro-forestry, conservation agriculture, and soil and water conservation, which already play a role in resilience building.

However, given the societal pressures mentioned at the outset, to develop the Sahel needs to diversify economies away from agriculture. This needs a lot more energy than is produced in the Sahel at present. Within the global context of climate change policy it is mitigation that opens up the opportunity to develop sustainably, with support for an energy transition toward renewable energy particularly appealing in a region endowed by an abundance of sun and wind.

https://theconversation.com/how-pollution-and-greenhouse-gases-affect-the-climate-in-the-sahel-111359